Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Post-Mortem

All trades occurred in an up market for the day.7

PHM
Short at 9.57 on a Gap & Trap, out at 9.43
I traded this one on the first five minute bar. It had gapped up on no news and was trading down. I took a flyer on it and - based on my results the rest of the day - assume I simply got lucky. I don't like depending on luck.

ESRX Short at 64.03 on a Continuation Flag, stopped out at 64.25 for a 1R loss
This trade occurred on the 6th bar. It looked like a continuation flag that had formed nicely: 2 long bars down, 3 consolidating in a down-up-down pattern, and then the 4th bar of the flag began trading down. This went against me within 10 minutes and my trailing stop got hit after 15. What did I do wrong? Maybe trying to trade a continuation was wrong, because the stock had gapped up on the open so we weren't technically in a downtrend at that point. However, if I look at the previous day, we were DEFINITELY in a downtrend coming into the start of day. The only reason it was NOT a downtrend was the gap at the open, and the first 5 minute bar was a down candle. Another possible weakness was that I should have counted the first bar of the flag as the last bar of the pennant. If that were the case, then I should have waited one more bar for the pattern to complete, and I would have seen that the pattern did not complete properly. That could have kept me out of this trade.

VRSN Short at 38.67 on 3 Black Crows, stopped out at 38.99 for a 1R loss
The trend was definitely up, and I got what looked to be 3 black crows. Howevber, in retrospect I can see that the 1st black crow actually opened below the close of the previous bar. In fact, none of the 3 bars of the crows opened higher than the close of the previous bar, which means it is NOT a reversal. 2 bars after the crows, the trade went against me and move up to my stop. Had I watched and waited, I would have seen a longer term trend that was violated around 10:45. I could have played short when the up trendline was violated around 38.98 and picked up a nice profit by riding it all the way to 38.28. I should habe been able to get at least 50 cents out of this by paying attention to the trendline.

UBS Short at 46.09 on a cont flag, stopped out at 46.59 for a 1R loss
The pole was 5 consecutive down bars. I came in on the 5th bar of the flag, right at the bottom of the fabric. I failed to set a stop at half the pole length and got hit when it went against me. The pennant of the flag was poorly formed. My stop loss should have been at 46.36. Poor formation, poor use of the stop loss.

TEVA Short at 43.74 on a prayer, stopped out at 44.01 for a 1R loss
TEVA Long at 44.00 on 3 white soldiers, stopped out at 43.67 for a 1R loss
This one was pretty good - I lost both directions.
The prayer was exactly that. I had two long down bars so I shorted against those, even though the trend was up. I need a much stronger signal to short against the trend. Had I not gotten into the trade short, I probably wouldn't have traded it long either, because the so-called 3 white soldiers weren't a true reversal pattern because the basic trend was up anyway.

Today's trading shows what happens when I want to trade more than I want to trade well.

Find the GOOD setups. Trade the good setups. It is better not to trade than to try to make something be there which is not there.

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