ES Notes
Daily Chart
Fibs: Swing High 939.50, Swing Low 662.50 (extreme to extreme)
We retraced to 830.50, within 4 pts of the 61.8 at 833.69. If we mark the Fibs close-to-close, then the 61.8 is 830.03. I'm gonna call that a retrace to the 61.8. We have since bounced down off it back towards the 38.2, which is at 770. We got as low as 775, which is also close enough for government work, so it is possible we are going to bounce between these two for a while. We need a break below 770 or above 830 to get out of this range.
Volume today was about the same as Monday's, which was a down day. I think we can call Monday a distribution day and today an accumulation day, but the fact is they cancel each other out.
MA order from top to bottom is 200/10/50/20. We closed just below the 10 and range today was from the 50 at the bottom to the 10 at the top. We are still above the 20 at 785.
MACD is -4.63 and mostly flat, in keeping with the sideways action the last two days.
CCI is -13.95 and dropping.
RSI is 48.85 and falling barely.
STO is 28.85 and falling.
In summary, we are technically on the fence; we could go either way.
60m Charts (24 hour)
MACD is open down at -1.14.
CCI -90 and slightly down.
RSI 31 and falling slightly.
STO 20 and falling slightly.
RSI & STO right on the oversold line, so we could go a little lower, but not much, at least not unless we burn off some of this oversold volume.
VIX spiked up to 44 at the close in the last hour.
If we break 782.25 that's 78.6 on today's range, we'll probably retrace all of today's gain - back to 775.50. Extension levels are 767 (127%) & 754 (168%). We'll worry about the 268 extension if we hit the first two.
Volume the last 15m was pretty spectacular.
NQ Notes
Daily Chart
Complete retrace from the last swing high occured last week, so we are on a different leg. The 38.2 retrace should be 1190. (Today's close was 1237.50.)
Volume comparable to yesterday. Same situation as the ES.
MA order top to bottom is 200/10/20/50. Short term we are in bullish order, unlike the ES. We closed today aboce the 10, but are below it AH. The 10 is now resistance at 1232.25, the 20 is support at 1202.75, the 50 is support at 1182.75.
MACD is -5.90 and basically flat like the ES.
CCI is 13.79 and heading down. Look for a cross of the 0 line as a short signal.
RSI is heading down at 50.85 - also very near a short signal.
STO is heading down at 34.91.
Again, indicators are not strong in either direction, but are at key levels on the NQ. Violation of these can tell us more about the coming daily directional bias.
Conclusion
The daily action looks pretty mixed, but the last 15 minutes combined with the after hours dumpage portends a lower day tomorrow. I am encouraged, (since I am still short ES), about the levels of the 168 retrace.
Daily Chart
Fibs: Swing High 939.50, Swing Low 662.50 (extreme to extreme)
We retraced to 830.50, within 4 pts of the 61.8 at 833.69. If we mark the Fibs close-to-close, then the 61.8 is 830.03. I'm gonna call that a retrace to the 61.8. We have since bounced down off it back towards the 38.2, which is at 770. We got as low as 775, which is also close enough for government work, so it is possible we are going to bounce between these two for a while. We need a break below 770 or above 830 to get out of this range.
Volume today was about the same as Monday's, which was a down day. I think we can call Monday a distribution day and today an accumulation day, but the fact is they cancel each other out.
MA order from top to bottom is 200/10/50/20. We closed just below the 10 and range today was from the 50 at the bottom to the 10 at the top. We are still above the 20 at 785.
MACD is -4.63 and mostly flat, in keeping with the sideways action the last two days.
CCI is -13.95 and dropping.
RSI is 48.85 and falling barely.
STO is 28.85 and falling.
In summary, we are technically on the fence; we could go either way.
60m Charts (24 hour)
MACD is open down at -1.14.
CCI -90 and slightly down.
RSI 31 and falling slightly.
STO 20 and falling slightly.
RSI & STO right on the oversold line, so we could go a little lower, but not much, at least not unless we burn off some of this oversold volume.
VIX spiked up to 44 at the close in the last hour.
If we break 782.25 that's 78.6 on today's range, we'll probably retrace all of today's gain - back to 775.50. Extension levels are 767 (127%) & 754 (168%). We'll worry about the 268 extension if we hit the first two.
Volume the last 15m was pretty spectacular.
NQ Notes
Daily Chart
Complete retrace from the last swing high occured last week, so we are on a different leg. The 38.2 retrace should be 1190. (Today's close was 1237.50.)
Volume comparable to yesterday. Same situation as the ES.
MA order top to bottom is 200/10/20/50. Short term we are in bullish order, unlike the ES. We closed today aboce the 10, but are below it AH. The 10 is now resistance at 1232.25, the 20 is support at 1202.75, the 50 is support at 1182.75.
MACD is -5.90 and basically flat like the ES.
CCI is 13.79 and heading down. Look for a cross of the 0 line as a short signal.
RSI is heading down at 50.85 - also very near a short signal.
STO is heading down at 34.91.
Again, indicators are not strong in either direction, but are at key levels on the NQ. Violation of these can tell us more about the coming daily directional bias.
Conclusion
The daily action looks pretty mixed, but the last 15 minutes combined with the after hours dumpage portends a lower day tomorrow. I am encouraged, (since I am still short ES), about the levels of the 168 retrace.
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